First cold evening

Temps are supposed to be in the 40s tonight east of the Mississippi and north of the Mason-Dickson line, and so tonight will be the first night many will turn on their heat. One thing that the CNBC talking heads spout repeatedly is that the reduction in the price of crude from $147 this summer to $70 this past week is some kind of "stimulus" to the American consumer. I don't know too many people who re did their family budgets this summer expecting to pay $147 for crude and the equivalents for refined products. With crude at $147, wholesale heating oil was $4.20 a gallon, roughly the same price as retail gasoline in the state of NJ. Last week, heating oil sold for about $2.40 on the commodity exchanges, so retail heating oil is likely to be around $3/gallon, and over the weekend I saw gasoline at $2.95 for regular in NJ.
To me, that is expensive still. From what I have read, filling up a tank of 250 gallons of heating oil costs about $750 and lasts 2 to 3 months, depending on use & temps, in a single family home. Given that wages haven't increased in the past 8 years for many middle income people, that $750 is likely to strain many budgets. The price of nat gas, for consumers, is likely to be $12-$14/mcf this winter, with the cost of heating a home with nat gas for the winter averaging $1000-$1200 for a single family home, again, depending on temps and usage. Better than paying for oil, but not cheap.
The price of energy is the single long term issue that America has to deal with. Obama said exactly that at the third debate. While the price of oil is down, downside demand destruction won't last forever. People can only drive less so much, and come heating time, unless the winter is unusually mild (which is not predicted) homes will likely be kept warm. I expect prices for energy to stabilize soon. The emerging markets are cooling, however, they do not know cheap oil the way America does, and so at a certain price oil is cheap enough again to encourage demand. If the American consumer thinks that $147 for crude is a fluke, he or she is sadly mistaken. I hope that people remain vocal about the large parts of their budgets energy consumes, and remain vigilant that we as a nation need to take steps to secure an energy future. Any kind will do. This is as important to the election as any other issue, and I hope its something that people take with them when they mark their ballots in November.